Talk:Time horizon: Difference between revisions
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(ummm. May I disagree with the meaning of time horizon?) |
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This may just be me but I understand something else with time horizon. Rather then being '''an end point''' of a certain stretch of time I understand that it is "a period of observance from here to a certain point in the future" | This may just be me but I understand something else with time horizon. Rather then being '''an end point''' of a certain stretch of time I understand that it is "a period of observance from here to a certain point in the future" | ||
:More exactly it is the future end point of some process, from which you LOOK "BACK" TO THE "PRESENT" IN THE DIRECTION OF DECREASING ENTRY (backwards in time from that future end point). So you have the concept right but the direction wrong. This doesn't always matter though. It is true that the horizon means nothing without the span in between. Otherwise we would call it a [[time limit]] or [[deadline]]. | |||
:http://mark-to-future.com is the most developed idea of this. It's based on [[Ron Dembo]]'s idea of [[regret]] as [[risk]]. It's very exact. | |||
:For example, imagine you wish to consider what to do next in some domain. If you wish that to be a good decision for seven generations, a common long term [[time horizon]], you may figure out what you want to be true at that time, which for simplicity let's say is 128 years from now. Then you have to figure out what would have to be true in only 64 years to make the 128 year vision come true - note that you are now going backwards in time... then what would have to be true in 32 years to make the 64 year interim deliverable work and be delivered on time, and in 16 years to make the 32 year one work, then 8 year, 4 year, 2 year, and one year from now. Then you can actually keep doing the same cutting the time in half until you have to resolve [[Xeno's paradox]] by just taking the [[best next step]], a quanta of action. So time horizons in this view are recursive but backward. Make sense? | |||