Bet

From Consumerium development wiki R&D Wiki
Jump to navigation Jump to search

To bet on outcomes is the entire basis of market dynamics. It is not optional in thinking about markets. There is some question as to whether bets could play a constructive role in the Content Wiki. Here are two ways that they might:

Revert currency treats every single edit as a bet that the edit will stand. This makes such tactics as ad hominem revert not very attractive if a whole faction is going to restore them and make them stick - whoever tries it loses credit. This may be a way to offset sysop power structure.

Prediction markets are a committed way to "put a bet on record" which helps others to see which bets you really believe, versus those you make just casually. Unlike bets in the commodity markets or currency markets, a prediction is normally attributed to some person, who may be trying to build up a reputation for successful prediction. But the voting, debating, etc., around the bet is the point - the commitment and the contrast between people taking up opposing positions, helps focus that and concentrate it on a specific test - the same way scientific theories exist to focus attention on one experiment.

For an excellent example of how bets and commitment to taking one side of a bet can focus political debate, see http://www.longbets.org/129

Bets exist whether one wants to formally support them or not; Spending time on one project versus another is a form of betting on that project to succeed.