Bet

To bet on outcomes is the entire basis of market dynamics. It is not optional in thinking about markets. There is some question as to whether bets could play a constructive role in the Content Wiki. Here are two ways that they might:

Revent currency treats every single edit as a bet that the edit will stand. This makes such tactics as ad hominem revert not very attractive if a whole faction is going to restore them and make them stick - whoever tries it loses credit. This may be a way to offset sysop power structure.

Prediction markets are a committed way to "put a bet on record" which helps others to see which bets you really believe, versus those you make just casually. Unlike bets in the commodity markets or currency markets, a prediction is normally attributed to some person, who may be trying to build up a reputation for successful prediction. But the voting, debating, etc., around the bet is the point - the commitment and the contrast between people taking up opposing positions, helps focus that and concentrate it on a specific test - the same way scientific theories exist to focus attention on one experiment.

For an excellent example of how bets and commitment to taking one side of a bet can focus political debate, see http://www.longbets.org/129

Bets exist whether one wants to formally support them or not; Spending time on one project versus another is a form of betting on that project to succeed.