Bet: Difference between revisions
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(example of something the content wiki might do) |
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To '''bet''' on outcomes is the entire basis of [[market]] dynamics. It is not optional in thinking about markets. There is some question as to whether bets could play a constructive role in the [[Content Wiki]]. Here | To '''bet''' on outcomes is the entire basis of [[market]] dynamics. It is not optional in thinking about markets. There is some question as to whether bets could play a constructive role in the [[Content Wiki]]. Here are two ways that they might: | ||
[[Revert currency]] treats every single edit as a bet that the edit will stand. This makes such tactics as [[ad hominem revert]] not very attractive if a whole [[faction]] is going to restore them and make them stick - whoever tries it loses credit. This may be a way to offset [[sysop power structure]]. | |||
[[Prediction market]]s are a committed way to "put a bet on record" which helps others to see which bets you really believe, versus those you make just casually. Unlike bets in the [[commodity market]]s or [[currency market]]s, a prediction is normally attributed to some person, who may be trying to build up a reputation for successful prediction. But the voting, debating, etc., around the bet is the point - the commitment and the contrast between people taking up opposing positions, helps focus that and concentrate it on a specific test - the same way scientific theories exist to focus attention on one experiment. | [[Prediction market]]s are a committed way to "put a bet on record" which helps others to see which bets you really believe, versus those you make just casually. Unlike bets in the [[commodity market]]s or [[currency market]]s, a prediction is normally attributed to some person, who may be trying to build up a reputation for successful prediction. But the voting, debating, etc., around the bet is the point - the commitment and the contrast between people taking up opposing positions, helps focus that and concentrate it on a specific test - the same way scientific theories exist to focus attention on one experiment. | ||
For an excellent example of how bets and commitment to taking one side of a bet can focus political debate, see http://www.longbets.org/129 | For an excellent example of how bets and commitment to taking one side of a bet can focus political debate, see http://www.longbets.org/129 | ||
Bets exist whether one wants to formally support them or not; Spending time on one project versus another is a form of betting on that project to succeed. | |||