Human dieoff: Difference between revisions
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Read about '''human dieoff''' at [http://dieoff.org|dieoff.org]. There are many theories of how this will or could happen, too many to list here, but here are some major ones: | Read about '''human dieoff''' at [[http://dieoff.org | dieoff.org]]. There are many theories of how this will or could happen, too many to list here, but here are some major ones: | ||
*(totally credible) [[nuclear winter]] theories re the disruption of climate by [[nuclear weapon]]s being used in large numbers; Risk of this is believed to be less now that USSR is gone, and the USA is no longer on hair-trigger alert. | *(totally credible) [[nuclear winter]] theories re the disruption of climate by [[nuclear weapon]]s being used in large numbers; Risk of this is believed to be less now that USSR is gone, and the USA is no longer on hair-trigger alert. | ||
*(extremely credible) [[climate change]] theories re: [[extinction]] and [[mass social disruption]] as over 3 billion people are directly affected by disasters - see [[w:IPCC|IPCC]] numbers and letters signed by ALL Nobel Prize winners on Earth. | *(extremely credible) [[climate change]] theories re: [[extinction]] and [[mass social disruption]] as over 3 billion people are directly affected by disasters - see [[w:IPCC|IPCC]] numbers and letters signed by ALL Nobel Prize winners on Earth. | ||
*(somewhat credible) [[civilization lifecycle]] theories re: [[energy subsidy]] rising to the point that a civilization can no longer afford to keep gathering energy, at which point it dies, see [[w:Joseph Tainter|Joseph Tainter]] in particular on this. | *(somewhat credible) [[civilization lifecycle]] theories re: [[energy subsidy]] rising to the point that a civilization can no longer afford to keep gathering energy, at which point it dies, see [[w:Joseph Tainter|Joseph Tainter]] in particular on this. | ||
*(much less credible) [[peak oil]] theories regarding the loss of [[fossil fuel]] supply and perhaps rising conflict over who will control it | *(controversial and much less credible) [[peak oil]] theories regarding the loss of [[fossil fuel]] supply and perhaps rising conflict over who will control it; skeptics point out that coal and renewable supplies of energy exist, and that a single technological (not scientific) breakthrough on [[fusion]] would end this as an issue | ||
*(credible only to [[trolls]]) theories regarding [[sysopism]] taking over and making dissent impossible to express, so that whatever disasters occur, no one will be able to point them out in advance or take any steps to prevent them; a [[sysop vandalism]] mentality could prevail where bureaucrats destroy thoughts in order to frustrate and drive away those whose | *(very controversial) [[ape extinction]] theories holding that ape extinctions presage human extinction, for various reasons having to do with empathy, hope and ideology - such extinctions, validating all the worst theories of [[human nature]] would be a very discouraging signal to anyone working on "solutions" and might strongly demotivate anyone qualified from caring about any of the above; ''this could well be another [[civilization lifecycle]] theory.'' | ||
*(credible only to [[trolls]]) theories regarding [[sysopism]] taking over and making dissent impossible to express, so that whatever disasters occur, no one will be able to point them out in advance or take any steps to prevent them; a [[sysop vandalism]] mentality could prevail where bureaucrats destroy thoughts in order to frustrate and drive away those whose true observations disturb and annoy them; ''this may be a variant of the [[civilization lifecycle]] theories - there are also (trivial) [[wiki lifecycle]] theories, e.g. at [[Meatball Wiki]], that more or less say something like this.'' | |||
[[Consumerium Services]] should generally be designed to prevent human dieoff if possible, or at least to help humans who are not contributing to it with their behaviour. Many [[worst practices]] must be extincted before all of the risks of '''dieoff''' could be said to be low - there is however at least one good example, of [[nuclear standoff]] being defused, so maybe other issues also can be addressed. | |||
Latest revision as of 20:18, 27 July 2004
Read about human dieoff at [| dieoff.org]. There are many theories of how this will or could happen, too many to list here, but here are some major ones:
- (totally credible) nuclear winter theories re the disruption of climate by nuclear weapons being used in large numbers; Risk of this is believed to be less now that USSR is gone, and the USA is no longer on hair-trigger alert.
- (extremely credible) climate change theories re: extinction and mass social disruption as over 3 billion people are directly affected by disasters - see IPCC numbers and letters signed by ALL Nobel Prize winners on Earth.
- (somewhat credible) civilization lifecycle theories re: energy subsidy rising to the point that a civilization can no longer afford to keep gathering energy, at which point it dies, see Joseph Tainter in particular on this.
- (controversial and much less credible) peak oil theories regarding the loss of fossil fuel supply and perhaps rising conflict over who will control it; skeptics point out that coal and renewable supplies of energy exist, and that a single technological (not scientific) breakthrough on fusion would end this as an issue
- (very controversial) ape extinction theories holding that ape extinctions presage human extinction, for various reasons having to do with empathy, hope and ideology - such extinctions, validating all the worst theories of human nature would be a very discouraging signal to anyone working on "solutions" and might strongly demotivate anyone qualified from caring about any of the above; this could well be another civilization lifecycle theory.
- (credible only to trolls) theories regarding sysopism taking over and making dissent impossible to express, so that whatever disasters occur, no one will be able to point them out in advance or take any steps to prevent them; a sysop vandalism mentality could prevail where bureaucrats destroy thoughts in order to frustrate and drive away those whose true observations disturb and annoy them; this may be a variant of the civilization lifecycle theories - there are also (trivial) wiki lifecycle theories, e.g. at Meatball Wiki, that more or less say something like this.
Consumerium Services should generally be designed to prevent human dieoff if possible, or at least to help humans who are not contributing to it with their behaviour. Many worst practices must be extincted before all of the risks of dieoff could be said to be low - there is however at least one good example, of nuclear standoff being defused, so maybe other issues also can be addressed.