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Scenario analysis
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'''Scenario analysis''' is a method of anticipating several [[comprehensive outcome]]s and using it to guide evolution of a [[service model]], or just to make some [[financial capital]] decisions. It requires disciplining what one believes about the future into a set of [[best cases]] and [[worst cases]] and assigning them probabilities. It necessarily requires considering cases that one does not believe can occur, because no one has perfect cognition, and it takes [[mutual cognition]] and discussion of [[visions]] and [[threats]] to be quite sure that one has really understood the limits of best and worst cases. "Scenarios should include extremes and those that contradict popular opinion" - Algorithmics Inc., probably the world's most advanced scenario analysis firm. See [[w:scenario analysis]] and [[w:risk]] for more general articles on this.
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