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To '''bet''' on outcomes is the entire basis of [[market]] dynamics.  It is not optional in thinking about markets.  There is some question as to whether bets could play a constructive role in the [[Content Wiki]].  Here are two ways that they might:
To '''bet''' on outcomes is the entire basis of [[market]] dynamics.  It is not optional in thinking about markets.  There is some question as to whether bets could play a constructive role in the [[Content Wiki]].  Here are two ways that they might:


[[Revert currency]] treats every single edit as a bet that the edit will stand.  This makes such tactics as [[ad hominem revert]] not very attractive if a whole [[faction]] is going to restore them and make them stick - whoever tries it loses credit.  This may be a way to offset [[sysop power structure]].
[[Revent currency]] treats every single edit as a bet that the edit will stand.  This makes such tactics as [[ad hominem revert]] not very attractive if a whole [[faction]] is going to restore them and make them stick - whoever tries it loses credit.  This may be a way to offset [[sysop power structure]].


[[Prediction market]]s are a committed way to "put a bet on record" which helps others to see which bets you really believe, versus those you make just casually.  Unlike bets in the [[commodity market]]s or [[currency market]]s, a prediction is normally attributed to some person, who may be trying to build up a reputation for successful prediction.  But the voting, debating, etc., around the bet is the point - the commitment and the contrast between people taking up opposing positions, helps focus that and concentrate it on a specific test - the same way scientific theories exist to focus attention on one experiment.
[[Prediction market]]s are a committed way to "put a bet on record" which helps others to see which bets you really believe, versus those you make just casually.  Unlike bets in the [[commodity market]]s or [[currency market]]s, a prediction is normally attributed to some person, who may be trying to build up a reputation for successful prediction.  But the voting, debating, etc., around the bet is the point - the commitment and the contrast between people taking up opposing positions, helps focus that and concentrate it on a specific test - the same way scientific theories exist to focus attention on one experiment.
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